Wollombi Tavern, Wollombi, NSW & Tesla Model Y - Central Coast, Sunday 17th March 2024

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Sometime late in 2023 I asked Google Gemini if there is publically available year on year projection data which shows the uptake of electric vehicles in Australia as compared with ICE vehicles. At what year will the decline of Ice vehicles become significant?

Google Gemini's Response
Yes, there is year-on-year projection data that shows the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) in Australia compared with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The data shows that EV sales are growing rapidly, while ICE sales are declining. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years, with EVs expected to become the dominant type of new car sales in Australia by the mid-2030s.

Here is a table showing the projected year-on-year sales of EVs and ICE vehicles in Australia:

Year - EV Sales - ICE Sales
2022 - 20,443 - 867,622
2023 - 46,624 - 754,074
2024 - 110,000 - 660,000
2025 - 170,000 - 550,000
2026 - 240,000 - 430,000
2027 - 320,000 - 310,000
2028 - 410,000 - 190,000
2029 - 500,000 - 80,000
2030 - 600,000 - 10,000

As you can see, EV sales are expected to grow by more than 2,900% between 2022 and 2030, while ICE sales are expected to decline by more than 98%. This is due to a number of factors, including government incentives, falling battery costs, and increasing consumer awareness of the environmental benefits of EVs.

The decline of ICE vehicles is expected to become significant around 2027, when EV sales are expected to outpace ICE sales for the first time. By 2030, ICE sales are expected to be less than 10% of total new car sales.

This is a significant shift in the Australian automotive market, and it is one that is being driven by a number of factors. Government policy is playing a major role, with all states and territories offering incentives for EV buyers. Additionally, battery costs are falling rapidly, making EVs more affordable. And finally, consumers are becoming increasingly aware of the environmental benefits of EVs.

As a result of these factors, the Australian automotive market is expected to undergo a major transformation in the next decade. EVs are expected to become the dominant type of new car sales, and ICE vehicles will become a niche market. This is a positive development for the environment, as it will help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is also a positive development for the economy, as it will create new jobs and industries.

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On the 23rd March 2024 I once again asked Google Gemini to provide statistics as to what year the sale of Electric vehicles within Australia is predicted to overtake sales of ICE cars commencing with 2023 sales comparisons.

Google Gemini's Response.
There isn't a single definitive prediction on the exact year EV sales will overtake ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) car sales in Australia. Here's what various sources say:

Bloomberg forecast Australia to be slow on EV uptake initially, but sales are expected to accelerate. By 2025, they predict 6% of all car sales will be electric (around 72,000 with Australia selling roughly 1.2 million cars annually) cleantechnica.com/2023/01/24/ace-ev-on-the-road-more-than....
Volkswagen Australia is bullish on EVs, projecting their own EV sales to outnumber ICE models by 2028. They believe this could be a conservative estimate www.carsales.com.au/editorial/volkswagen/electric-cars-ca....
Skoda Australia aligns with Volkswagen's prediction, expecting their EV sales to surpass petrol and diesel models within the next five years (by 2028) www.drive.com.au/tag/skoda/.
Hippo Leasing predicts Germany will be the first country with EV sales exceeding ICE by the end of 2024, with Australia and New Zealand lagging behind by many years. They estimate Australia might reach this tipping point by 2045 autotalk.com.au/industry-news/when-will-evs-take-over-ice.
It's important to note that these are predictions, and the actual timeline could be faster or slower depending on factors like:

Government incentives for EVs and charging infrastructure.
Battery technology advancements affecting range and cost.
The availability and affordability of a wider variety of EV models.
Here are some resources for 2023 EV sales data in Australia (which isn't yet available):

Statista - Electric Vehicles - Australia provides market forecasts and historical data, which will likely be updated with 2023 figures later www.statista.com/statistics/789981/australia-electric-veh...
The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) releases monthly sales data, including a breakdown by drivetrain (electric, petrol, etc.). Their website should have the most recent data available www.fcai.com.au/.

Taken in: Australia / New South Wales / Wollombi (show map)

Taken on: March 17, 2024

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